Sunday, October 26, 2008

the polls are not wrong

Let me just rant real quick.

First of all, the handle of Kahlua ready-made White Russian is heavier on the vodka than the airplane-bottle kind. This strikes me as backward.

Secondly, I've been reading a lot of right-wing denial regarding the current Obama vs. McCain polls, i.e. they are skewed, they are biased, they don't take into account that America is racist (really! that's a right-wing argument...that America is racist, and that they lie to black pollsters because they'd feel bad about voicing their support for McCain), etc., etc.

A gentleman over at Wizbang (a right-wing blog) lays out a very calm, reasoned argument for this being the most incorrectly polled race since we've really started polling in 1936. Here's the link for that:

Wizbang says the polls are wrong.

But, it's like this. And I could be wrong. Polls, overall, are normally very correct. Here's a bit of a crushing link:

Record of polls from 1936-2000.

And that doesn't include the results of the '04 election, so I looked them up:

2004 polls.

My point is this: even if the polls are inaccurate numerically, which they have been (NBC News's poll in 1980 for example, was 14 points off [that's both ways, now, don't get it twisted]), from 1936 to 2000 the polls picked the correct candidate 54 out of 62 times (87%). It should be noted that, with the exception of Truman v. Dewey (in which there was only one recorded poll), the polls have never been more in favor of the wrong candidate. And just fucking look at that 2004 compilation of polls from Real Clear Politics...I think I counted Kerry three times among a fucking overwhelming onslaught of Bush.

You can rationalize it all you want, but unless this is every single poll doing, quantitatively, far worse than the worst job since polls (sort of) began, Obama's headed for a victory.

Hell, David Frum, Bush's former speechwriter/neocon radio talkshow host, said it best, here:

"Sorry, Senator. Let's salvage what we can."

I have to go eat tacos. More on this later.

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